: Tunisia and Egypt 2010-11 [is then published an analysis, but a pamphlet on this subject, which is so difficult to find information on the outside of the media Capital massive propaganda]
The Arab world holds its breath and look at Egypt. The struggle that there is about to unfold foreshadows the outcome of the struggles that may arise throughout the region soon. A defeat of the Egyptian uprising, whether at the hands of the military or at the hands of the Islamists, would result in a defeat for the surveys already underway in Libya, Sudan Arab, Yemen and Algeria. Determine what comes out of them in one way or another.
1. In Egypt, things have reached a point where there are clear signs of decomposition revolutionary reorganization of society.
The police hated has almost disintegrated, has back from the street, did not look anywhere. This astonishing observation that no one could predict and met with disbelief and distrust of the protesters, not an indication of the relative strength of the latter, in military terms, but the internal weakness of the police.
This force was fairly reliable as they saw the protesters as middle-class people with university education. It appears that this notion fell apart when people from the lower strata of society, after some hesitation, became interested in their struggle and took to the streets to support them.
police, made up mostly of people esos estratos inferiores, parece haber titubeado instantáneamente frente a un levantamiento que en gran medida ha demostrado ser proletario.
La desaparición de la policía de la calle, y la oleada instantánea de saqueos que le siguió —según la mayoría de los egipcios organizada por la propia policía— provocó una respuesta de las masas: empezaron a organizar comités de barrio dedicados a salvaguardar a la población y a organizar su defensa, tanto contra el Estado como contra las bandas.
2. Otra forma de autoorganización cobró existencia de un modo muy parecido: comités de fábrica obreros, al menos en los bastiones industriales, donde los trabajadores unite to defend (which could translate as: take) your work and organize a general strike. Came from these circles also trying to form independent unions.
These events are significant to the extent that at this stage and there was no state control over parts of social life. People were given the opportunity and the obligation, to organize itself.
seems that if there is a criterion that defines the social revolution against mere political revolution, this is it. What we are now witnessing in Egypt is a social revolution.
Judging by how the Iranian revolution failed in 1979, and we can deduce that there is a danger deeply rooted in the dual structure of this new and spontaneous self-organization. The two branches, if desired, may tend to take divergent paths they represent completely different needs and obey a completely different dynamic, and that could ultimately be used to ruin.
In 1978-1979, the neighborhood committees, the Komiteh, ended up under the influence of Islamic clerics and their followers because in those circles had many followers and most devoted, fearless and organized, they were not willing to abide by the rules revolutionary democracy, and they decided to crush his opponents. More Later, his arm slammed into what would become the organization Pasdaran, in a way very similar to how Feliks Dzershinsky created the Cheka from what remained of the military committees of local soviets, after purging the all non-Bolshevik and transformed into a mere instrument.
Moreover, workers' councils were controlled by gradually Leninist groups and populist left that reduced the significance and potential impact of these tips to the status of a mere political instrument, when it was time for the Islamists turned against the workers, throughout their organization fell within months.
That's how self-organization of the proletariat succumbed to counter Islamist.
These two branches representing two different trends, and ultimately served two distinct classes: the neighborhood committees increasingly represented what might be called a petty bourgeoisie, and the factory councils the industrial proletariat. There was no organization, however, able to deal with post-revolutionary society organization as a whole, democracy insurgent, born of the need for self-defense, showed his paralysis, and ultimately was unable to meet the enemy. Currently
do not see what could help the Egyptian uprising avoid this pitfall.
3. The Egyptian army does not seem to know whether to turn against Mubarak or against the uprising. Has entered the city, where he was cheered by the crowd who welcomed him as a counterweight to the hated police, so far has failed to suppress the people rebel.
Few analysts do not believe he can. It is not our case, however, we do not see how the Army could avoid the same fate as the police, and if it did, then the armed deserters would join the uprising, which would then be armed. And that would mean the end of any attempt to restore order soon, which is intended by the military leadership.
Moreover, the military desperately want to be perceived as part of the solution, not part of the problem. Therefore, only repress the protests if they find a political solution, ie a so-called government of national unity under Baradei or another, with or without the participation of the NDP.
The day you find such a solution will be the day when the crackdown begins in earnest.
The last factor in the equation are the Ikhwan al Muslimun. The Islamists do not seem to jump to the forefront and trying to seize power. Await the moment when you know who is the winner, and then make your bet. Maintain a largely symbolic presence in the protests and negotiated behind the scenes. They know they will be part of any political solution, and have enough strength in the street to have their voice heard in it if necessary.
are an enemy to be reckoned with. Nobody can think that they have been marginalized. Just be cautious. One way or another, we hear.
Any alleged political solution, remember, is not a solution. This has nothing to do with the establishment of a new government being the case, none of this would have happened.
World Arabic, not just the Arab world is watching. They are great things about to happen. No one knows how to come out. It could all go horribly wrong. Not to go horribly wrong, things need assistance. Initiatives are needed in Europe and elsewhere. Anyone interested in the success of the Egyptian revolution should get moving. If you are not a complete cranks-which some are, "you will know what you should do.
# translation of a German analysis published in the blog In The Absence Of Truth in January 2011 There was no future
The rioting was started ...
Nothing explodes like a refinery and the insurgents seem to like to burn things ...
(declaration of a financial analyst at Aljazeera)
The transition phase of the crisis: restructuring the rebellion
Every day, the wind of revolt that swept Africa and the Middle East feel more. Country after country into the headlines of international press and the theme is always the same: conflicts between demonstrators and police or thugs each local government parastatal, usually totalitarian. Despite all the efforts of the global spectacle to hide the proletarian nature of the surveys and to underline its internal contradictions, presenting the events as mere "political movement for democracy 'or confrontations policies among the followers of this or that regional political, can not hide the obvious truth: it is a class against another. The proletarians used stones, Molotov cocktails and clubs, the cop is fully assembled and is so afraid to shoot and kill indiscriminately. The proletarians occupy buildings, blocking roads, burning cars, reduced to ashes prison, released prisoners and infrastructure sabotage. The capital is prepared to impose even harsher dictatorship. For transitional arrangements will not be easy to stabilize, it will not meet any of the main demands of the insurgents related to their living conditions. Egypt and Libya are so far, the most serious manifestations of the insurrectionary phase of the crisis. Egypt is important because of its economic and geopolitical competition in the global inter-capitalist and Libya it is, not only for its relevance as a producer of oil, but also because the government quickly lost control of the situation, which has sparked global panic.
The current regime of accumulation is the result of the first restructuring that took place during the 1970 and 1980, the crisis is the other side of the success of that restructuring. Is the deepening of neoliberalism itself what has produced this historic crisis because capitalism is a contradictory social relations. No matter how stable it look out for each mode of accumulation, has within it the dynamic development of its internal contradiction, which ultimately leads to the outbreak of the crisis. The achievement of capitalism restructured, namely, the triumph of the subsumption of all existence of the proletariat under capitalism has desperately dependent reproduction of the proletariat (and capitalism) of the ups and downs of the economy, ie it is more vulnerable to crises than in any previous historical period. In the current historical moment in which we find ourselves, the transition phase of the global capitalist crisis that erupted in 2008 continues to develop. In this transition phase, the global financial capital tries to avoid direct devaluation by imposing a draconian second phase of restructuring across the globe. The consequences of this effort are visible everywhere, but differ in regard to the intensity and quality of the attack against the proletariat, which depends on: a) the position of each state within the global capitalist hierarchy, b) the progress already made during the first phase of the restructuring imposed and especially c) the history of class struggle in each region. Worldwide (except China) restructuring involves a reduction of wages Direct and indirect (pensions, benefits and utilities), assumes that the wage claim becomes illegitimate, and also implies an increase in prices of essential goods, which is due to both objective mechanism of the crisis and the fact that certain factions clearly speculative capital food prices. One outcome of this bet is that the most undervalued of the proletariat has literally nothing to eat: "Prices have risen so much that if I buy a few lemons for my sore throat, I stay broke all month" said an employee of the Ministry of Transportation in Egypt.
In the storm of economic crisis, subsidies state for the survival of the workforce redundant disappear and the result is the proliferation of informal work and poverty. The proletarians have no choice but to work (mostly informally) in order to survive and at the same time as a result of the crisis, they are unable to find a job or have an income to cover the cost of playing strength work. The proletarians require to survive, so they claim reductions in food prices, increased wages and employment. Their demands ask capitalists desperately to save capitalism from itself. When stable employment and wage require "decent" in fact the workers were the capitalists say, "you need us, without us there is no extraction of surplus value, no capital." The capital, for its part, responds that she can not afford the survival of the proletariat, and makes clear that some (significant) of the latter is useless (in terms of value) and, more importantly, the desired recovery that does not involve reintegration some of this superfluous part of the proletariat, it follows that structurally these proletarians are a surplus population. Historically, then, the wage claim appears to be a dead end (structural, not cyclical) and also as a necessity. The lifting of the proletariat superfluous, and therefore devoid of future, is facing the most clear and cruel capitalist domination, the police. And it is precisely the fact that out of the crisis, from the capitalist point of view, this population does not include superfluous proletarian making the police in the general form of contemporary capitalism.
Worldwide
the workers experience the stifling of their precarious situation in a context defined by poverty and ghettoization. The most striking examples are Frontex (the border police EU), the respective military and police deployed at the U.S. border with Mexico, the wall in Palestine, working the fields guarded by the army in China, the gated community of English and its counterpart, the favelas, vast slums, and of course the Greek version of this situation, the fence 12.5 km border with Turkey. A slow but ultimately the entire planet becomes a space governed by apartheid and Bantustans modern building for the working class. This repression stifles urban proletarians and denies one of the basic conditions of capitalism: the free sale of labor power. In Cairo, this type of urban planning was implemented at a rapid pace over the past decade. In all regions of Africa and the Middle East where now produces the proletarian uprising, the dictatorship of the value and economic policy in the form of a dictatorial democracy. The reason why these riots have alarmed the capitalists around the world is that the democratic dictatorship, totalitarianism, now is the fantasy of the bourgeoisie in the most developed countries, it seems the only way to impose the second phase restructuring.
In all these demonstrations and riots began from the field of play, the question is whether the turmoil will also come to the field of production value, the epicenter of capitalism. The strikes followed the fall of the socialist dictator Mubarak seem to point in that direction and capitalists are anxiously watching the corner of the world with his finger on the trigger, then suddenly the "El Dorado" become traps for the capital in volatile regions whose future is uncertain. The "huge competitive advantage" has become, almost overnight the in "risk management impossible." Outsourcing, tourism, construction and textile industries, but especially oil and trade routes (Suez and the Gulf) now run into the fire of proletarian uprising. After Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, where the insurgency is still ongoing, Bahrain, Yemen, Iran, Iraq and Algeria kill proletarians in their efforts to prevent the uprising.
The Greek system also tries to operate proactively against the revolt to come: on one side prepares for the formal imposition of some form of dictatorship (perhaps through elections) and the other seeks to address the reactions due to a populist-nationalist right or left (as a second option.) The global finance officials, who control the state power now Greek, now trying to quickly sell state property, after its success in reducing wages. This sale is merely an attempt to revitalize a trapped capital (mainly) in the Greek and European financial system and immediate danger of massive devaluation. On the other side, the workers are opposed to this sale because they understand that means a further reduction of indirect wages and deteriorating living conditions in general refuse to pay fines and tolls, occupy buildings, try to reduce the effects crisis making as much noise as they can, but so far only in the sphere of circulation and reproduction. The strikes in sectors affected by the restructuring did not correspond to the intensity of the attack, they represent only the last rounds of mediation capabilities of the unions.
The two probable strategies of the bourgeoisie Greek are double-edged. The imposition of a dictatorship in Greece would probably cross the Mediterranean to the virus of rebellion, with all that would mean something to other European countries. On the other hand, the slowdown in the restructuring likely would challenge the participation of Greece in politically unified Europe, which would relegate it to the third area of \u200b\u200bthe capital. That would seriously jeopardize the interests of a large sector of the Greek bourgeoisie. For the workers
living in Greece there is only one way, regardless of the implementation option: a class struggle increasingly radicalized. Surely the unions will not soon convene another 24-hour general strike as of today, but as time goes on the front of the class struggle will multiply and the outbreak of the insurgency can not be postponed much longer. On the dynamics of their own development objectives and its failures, the struggles for the rights of the proletariat, focusing on the existence of wage and against the general deterioration of living standards, eventually breaking its contents protest. This break is already announced in cases like Keratea and appear clearly in any localized conflict. The content makes it impossible to break the political unification of the proletariat in struggle and hence the effective mediation of conflicts. For example, the repression likely to face social movement "we will not pay for the crisis" could bring the conflict to the point of endangering the very existence of modern means of transport. The development of dynamic ruptures can never finish and level off in gains of the working class' it can only be the beginning of the revolutionary process in history.
for Agents of Chaos #
# Leaflet distributed on February 23, 2011 during demonstrations and general strike in Athens and Thessaloniki, Greece. # Extracted from
There was no future
